Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by tiagoafpereira 2838 days ago
I don't deny that the bright future you've just described will happen (well, might happen) but putting it in a time frame of less than 20 years seems to me just wishful thinking.

If only I could see the same enthusiasm for say, improving public transit range, infrastructure and operational costs... nope, auto-cars will save us.

Take a look at Germany, they've just launched the world's first hydrogen-powered train.

As a side note:

The total economic potential is huge. Anyone able to attain near monopoly for one of the technologies [...]

Economic potential and monopolies don't mix very well, unless you're one of the shareholders of said monopoly.

1 comments

Well, about 20 years seems about right, for the full potential. But it is possible that part of the potential can be achieved much sooner, my guess is that the transformation will start in full around 2025.

On monopolies: Look at the big companies coming out of the internet revolution. Google, Facebook, Amazon, eBay, Uber and the rest are all near-monopolies in their core segments. As are older giants, such as Microsoft and Apple.

I'm not saying it is good, I'm just saying that the lesson from the previous wave, is that the winner takes it all. And as investors have learned this, they don't want to be late for the next party, hence the hype.

Of course, the risk that the bubble will burst at least once before the actual party, is pretty high.