[mschuster91]

> The population change is exponential.

That assumes that reproduction rate stays constant. Fact is: after the second generation, reproduction rate is only a tiny bit above the one of the "host country" (per http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/demografische-stud...).

The reason is that while first generation women usually stay at home and care for kids, second and following generation women go to universities and then into jobs which means delayed childbirth and less kids overall (because each kid means a drop in career). In addition, Germany has easy and cheap access to family planning - everything from pill and condoms over "plan b pill" to abortions - than typical "origin countries", further lowering the rate of unwanted pregnancies.

Altogether, the "Umvolkung" theory is utter bullshit spewed out especially by the Identitäre Bewegung neo nazis.

[mkaziz]

Also the birth rate of the source population (Syria) is 2.5x. Germany is 1.5x. It's not really that far apart. Between that and the drop in the birth rate after the first generation, and the conversion out of Islam that will start happening as later generations assimilate and intermarry with locals, I doubt if there will be a substantial change in the Muslim population over the long term.