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by TomMckenny
2842 days ago
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The Warren law would simply reintroduce several systems that were in place by convention until the '80s. That earlier period, by the way, was not a living hell of industry killing regulation but in fact had less consolidation. It also had higher GPD growth, lower cost of living, and more economic stability, so apparently it won't kill the economy either. |
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The US system is massively debt based at the moment, private debt (note: private not public) went from 40% -> 80% GDP from 1970 to today. My naive perspective is that I would expect higher debt loads to cause:
* Lower GDP growth
* Higher costs of living
* Reduced economic stability
* Consolidation (because large players have more capital so can secure larger loans)
* Low real wage growth (because ability to earn by working is not as attractive because there is an option to 'earn' by borrowing)
The US ended the Brenton Woods system in the early 70s, and the consolidations really started in in around the early 80s [1]. So we know that there were some pretty major changes at the roots, of the financial system. It seems very plausible that some critical incentive changed in the late 70s (roughly lines up with Paul Volcker becoming Fed chair) and we have been seeing the ramifications ever since. That happens to coincide with the highest interest rates set under the current monetary system and the start of the current trend which is extending into the negatives [2].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bank_mergers_in_the_Un...
[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate