[tinco]

I think the advantages of tests, TDD or otherwise, are not easily measured. Everyone knows cowboy coding up small projects works and through manual testing they can quickly be deployed with reasonable quality, especially if the developers are experienced.

The tests shine in the follow-up phases, when code needs to be changed, when inexperienced hands have to touch the code base, and when there's simply too much going on to fit in one mind.

If you build your product with the future in mind, then you write tests. If you've got VC money and you need to sprint to some goal before the puck gets in front of your stick, then I can see the logic in skipping tests.

If the tech debt hits you before you reach that point though, you're in deep shit. It might also be the reason that innovative companies often seem to technologically stall right after hitting mainstream.