[jarym]

Predicting price means you’re predicting one variable with no idea of hot likely you are to be wrong and how wrong you’re likely to be and says nothing of where your expectations are for price to go after.

It is semantically different to say: if price goes to Y then you have odds that it will then go to Target 1 and then slightly lower odds it goes to Target 2.

[beagle3]

Do you long now, or short now, or neither? If you go long, you’ve predicted price goes higher. Regardless of what you think about the entire path. Mathematically nothing else makes sense.