I understood this not as that smartphones will be replaced, but that they will reach a plateu where few people will have a desire to upgrade or to pay the apple premium over cheaper devices. I'd say it's very clear that this is starting to happen already.
Once there’s a socially accepted high quality AR solution you basically don’t need screens anymore. Your wrist is your smartwatch, your palm is your smartphone, the air over your desk is your PC screen, every object in the world can be a smart device, and every face an infographic.
The challenges are (1) miniaturizing, (2) input devices and (3) social acceptance, but as far as I can see AR as the universal display technology is inevitable. Not sure though on the time frame and whether it will be glasses, lenses or implants.
OK, sure. But then, it's been minutes away from Midnight on the Doomsday Clock since the late 40s, no? I do remember being in Moscow, when Reagan's joke about bombing the Soviet Union went public. Everyone pretty much knew it was a joke, given what a funny guy he was, but still it was freaky. And I was in Helsinki during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and it's not that far from Leningrad (as we knew it then). So now? The fear has worn off, pretty much, and the chances are good that I'll die of something far more mundane. But one never knows. And WTF, seeing a fireball up close and personal would be cool.
> What kind of device or system of devices do you think will fully replace the current concept of a smartphone?
Today, my Apple Watch, iPhone, and iPad provide different "lenses" on my digital self + my digital stuff. If I run an errand without my phone, I can still make phone calls, text my wife, play my music, etc.
Things like CarPlay, Apple TVs, and HomePods are other lenses. CarPlay happens to need an iPhone now, but something wearable will be enough to power CarPlay at some point. Eventually, cars will have enough native computing power and connectivity that they won't require a proxy device to work.
By 2030 I expect AR smart glasses to be fairly common, hopefully with less-conspicuous options for people who don't need vision correction. Maybe they'll be powerful enough on their own, or work more like CarPlay and require a wearable complement. Additionally, voice user interfaces will continue to evolve and work with all of these lenses.
TLDR: Instead of today's "hero device" model, I think we're moving toward an "many devices" model.