[mmt]

The point is that, to a VC, a small return is indistinguishable from losing all the (not "your", since they rarely have much, if any of their own money in it) money.

Given their economics, VCs have a very strong incentive (or an imperative, according to that article) for "forcing everyone to 10X+" (and I would argue it's more like 20x+), no matter how small the likelihood of that outcome. Without at least one outsized exit, they're a failure.

Put another way, their LPs aren't paying them to, in any way, play it safe. Near-zero chance isn't the same as zero.

So, yes, the choice for a typical VC isn't difficult. It's just the opposite of what you're proposing.