[admoin]

I think there are two sides to what Warren Buffett is saying. One side is nonsense, I agree - that he can make a prediction like that based on early trends. The other side, however, which is what I think he actually meant, is that, in fact, predicting from trends is not nearly what it's cracked up to be, and that there is no real guarantee of continued healthy returns from US equities, or even long-term returns to capital that are comparable to the low double-digit returns of the 20th Century. That's a legitimate point.

[wanorris]

It is utterly reasonable to argue that past returns are no guarantee of future returns, but if that is the argument he meant to make, he did it exceedingly poorly.

[admoin]

I think he was trying to spin it in a folksy way, but ended up dumbing it down to the point that it came across as a weak argument.