[jasonkester]

Allow me to correct your misunderstanding.

My premise is that there are way too many people who haven't built successful software companies because they a) never even tried.

And, that the reason many of them never tried is because of rationalizations that the "successful" people must have had some special quality that they themselves could never possess, and that therefore it would be pointless to try at all.

Which is a shame.

[themarkn]

Hmm. I disagree with this overall assessment that that's what's going on. I think people some people (especially hn people) are rightly suspicious of advice that is related to that one specific time success happens. Though of course some individuals apply this in a kneejerk way which must be infuriating if you're trying to make a more subtle point.

But I think in general it's a trend against the idea that successful people or projects are successful because of a particular sequence of steps that could, if replicated, make an observer successful also. Whereas, as you point out, it's more about this meta thing of how we do our best to recognize good conditions for success, and then keep showing up. If the chances of success (especially really big success) are small- trying more times increases your odds.

I think people, broadly speaking, understand this idea, and all the yelling about confirmation bias has roots in real instances of people bragging/advising/publishing books/whatever based on anecdotes about things that happened during their specific successful project, with less recognition of how much coincidence matters.

And yes, you can't benefit from coincidence if you don't show up. If you aren't trying in the first place. If that is your actual premise, it's not very obvious to me from your post. Honestly the tone of your post felt more like complaining/whining that people won't listen to your advice when you want to give it and how frustrated that makes you, than a sincere attempt to talk about the pros and cons of repeatedly taking risks on new projects when you could be doing other things.

[jasonkester]

It's surprising to hear that you (and others) think I'm talking about the reaction to my advice. I don't think I've actually seen anybody call my writing confirmation bias any of the times it has made it here.

This is something I notice in the reactions to other people's posts. I'll read something, nod along to a bunch of good ideas and overall wisdom, then come read the commentary here dismissing the whole thing.

Oddly, thinking about it now, it's something that never seems to happen to my own advice. Perhaps it's so self-evidently obvious that my success is random chance and bad ideas that worked in spite of themselves, that nobody ever felt the need to point it out.

[themarkn]

I guess I'm projecting that then. The opening "Have you ever noticed that nobody is allowed to be successful on the internet?" struck me as very silly and I must have gone on from there and filled in my own thoughts about why anybody would write this way. "Allowed" to be successful makes it seem like you have a huge chip on your shoulder with somebody - who does the disallowing? How do they actually prevent you from being successful? It sets the tone of the post as a story of persecution which I'm guessing you did not intend.

[smokestack412]

Your premise has something to do with your success preventing you from being able to give advice to people? Something again about your success, and how you've been successful? And how your success facilitated your success?

"Maybe what you're really seeing is Confirmation Bias and, again, everything you have to say is worthless."

"Which is annoying."

"Because it misses the point."