[citation_please]

Could it also be the case that investments driven by speculation and market manipulation would obscure the actual ROI (a lá Uber)?

Long-term the intuition is "this must be profitable at some point", so the market participants are acting irrational in the short-term. No one can compete with irrational actors, especially ones with an insane amount of capital to burn like we see today.

[ajmurmann]

If you think the market is irrational, bet against it. Just claiming to know better but not putting your money where your mouth is and not having skin in the game is a anti pattern that's advisable in this case.