[nopinsight]

In general, the differences among a top echelon of human expertise are vastly smaller than those between humans and other kinds of agents, animals or AIs. We all share similar cognitive architecture for handling complex domains after all.

Once OpenAI Five defeat 3-4 pro teams convincingly, it could be presumed from the observation above that they will defeat any other top teams within a year at most, if sufficient resources are used for improving the AI. An exception is when a fundamental hidden weakness is found in the AI.

Another confounding factor is major rule changes where the game essentially becomes a different one.

[_ptgt]

> Once OpenAI Five defeat 3-4 pro teams convincingly, it could be presumed from the observation above that they will defeat any other top teams within a year at most, if sufficient resources are used for improving the AI. An exception is when a fundamental hidden weakness is found in the AI.

Not sure how you intended this, but the hero pool constraint is actually an enormous advantage for the AI. The current hero pool isn't, by any means, random. I don't know OpenAI selected it, but it's highly conducive to OpenAI Five's strengths--deathballing, mechanics, teamfight coordination, etc. It lacks essentially all of the heroes that humans would normally pick to counter that strategy.

Playing on an unrestricted hero set would test OpenAI Five in entirely different ways than playing on the current hero pool would. I would not be comfortable betting on your statement at all.

[ajuc]

> I don't know OpenAI selected it, but it's highly conducive to OpenAI Five's strengths--deathballing, mechanics, teamfight coordination, etc. It lacks essentially all of the heroes that humans would normally pick to counter that strategy.

Isn't it the other way around - openai adjusted to the hero pool to come up with its' strategy, because it was trained on this hero pool.

If hero pool had only late-game melee carries - I assume openai would come up with a strategy that works with that.

[_ptgt]

I don't think so. It's quite easy to imagine that a computer would outperform humans in strategies that require precise execution and coordination in teamfights. In fact, it's not specific to OpenAI; even the built-in Dota bots' strengths are generally teamfight execution.

My guess is that if OpenAI 5 trained under a different hero pool, it would be weaker than it is now. It's very hard to predict how much weaker though.

[noxvilleza]

> The current hero pool isn't, by any means, random.

Some of the restrictions they've discussed - like initially they couldn't handle with illusions, summons or invisibility at all. They obviously dropped the invis restriction.

My feeling is that the AI just learned that of the given pool, 'deathball' was the best (and specific heroes like Gyrocopter/Sniper were the most effective carries).