[ci5er]

> But why do humans find this idea so seductive? It's because of an underlying loneliness: we want to believe that we are connected with the universe in some fashion, that our existence has a point [...]

No. It's simply that statistically, we can't believe we are the first, nor that we are unique. It would be (statistically) extremely odd if we were, and there is a bias against anthropo-centric theories.

Heck, I'd be happier if we are alone (less risk and more free land), but if we appear to be, that seems odd, and worthy of investigation. No?

EDIT: Why do you claim to speak for all our hopes/dreams/desires? "We need this" or "We want that". Frankly, that's a little collectivist and creepy.

[spuz]

> No. It's simply that statistically, we can't believe we are the first, nor that we are unique. It would be (statistically) extremely odd if we were, and there is a bias against anthropo-centric theories.

Fermi's paradox does not ask about civilisations like ours. It asks about interstellar travelling or at least interstellar communicating species. We have not achieved this level yet so we are not the 'first' as you say. You might claim that our radio signals should be able to be detected, but they are so weak and have been travelling for such a short period of time that they may as well not exist to an outside observer. There may be millions of our type of civilisation out there presently and throughout history but they would all be undetectable to us and hence our civilisation doesn't play into the paradox.

[akvadrako]

Well one answer to the Fermi paradox is we get wiped out but barring that it seems unlikely we won't reach the stars in millions of years.

And you seem to ignore it, but the other part of the paradox is if we can achieve interstellar travel in millions of years, that's like no time at all on a galactic scale. So it would be a major coincidence if we are within 1 million years of the first.

[spuz]

As far as the Fermi paradox is concerned it's a much safer assumption to make that advanced civilisations will achieve interstellar communication before they achieve interstellar travel.

Even so, my point is that human technology tells us nothing about the probility of a civilisation ever developing interstellar communication because we haven't seen it happen yet. We are still at the 0 stage when going from 0 to 1. It doesn't make sense to extrapolate from our position on the technological timeline. It makes more sense to assume tabula rasa that aliens have developed this technology and then explore the implications of that.

[ci5er]

Ok. Fair enough. My point was simply that: we might be curious, but most of us aren't lonely or looking for any higher purpose or meaning (well, many may be, but if we were - we wouldn't look to aliens to satifice them)

[perl4ever]

"we can't believe we are the first, nor that we are unique. It would be (statistically) extremely odd if we were"

Someone did a Bayesian analysis using probability distributions and found that, given what we observe (no aliens), there is a substantial probability we are the first civilization in the universe, or else the only one within galactic distances. They also inferred that whatever makes spacefaring life unlikely is probably in the past, not the future, which seems optimistic if you're worried about AGW or nuclear war.

"The Fermi question is not a paradox: it just looks like one if one is overconfident in how well we know the Drake equation parameters."

"The Fermi observation makes the most uncertain priors move strongly, reinforcing the rare life guess and an early great filter."

They end up with a 40% chance we are alone in the universe and about a 55% chance we are alone in our galaxy.

http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-ba...