[marco_salvatori]

My suspicion is that its very unlikely that Google and FB are going to be able to establish the government relationships that would allow them to operate successfully in China.Google collects massive amounts of citizen data and it has close relations with the US military / security institutions. The combination means Google will never be a trusted operator in China. Facebook is in a worse position. In addition to being a data collection platform with US government connections, it is a communications platform not under the direct control of China, located in the US.And these US communications platforms have a history now of being associated with movements of anti-government dissent around the world.

More generally, I dont see how US tech companies are going to be able to have it both ways -- be both willing partners in US government policy and also non threatening to Chinese sovereignty.

[seanmcdirmid]

I don't see how Chinese tech companies are going to be able to have it both ways either if they ever actually want to leave China. This is one market (the world) vs. another market (China), and they are increasingly becoming separated at the Internet level.

Also, if China decides the only way it can keep competing is by blocking their competition, then the rest of the world will just wag their finger at them when they complain about export markets for their cultural products. If the Chinese government were smart, they would find a way to let Facebook and Google in while maintaining control over censorship AND keeping its anointed tech companies with majority market shares.

[marco_salvatori]

Yes, strict separation will probably be the norm where there are sovereignty issues. And it will be enforced both ways. So for example,I will make the claim that if Alipay expanded into the US it would own the entire payments market in one year. Alipay is just that much better than anything else available in the US. Plausible or not, Alipay will never operate successfully in the US because the US will not cede sovereignty over part of its financial infrastructure to China.

I can not say if that is smart or not. That question is outside of my technical sphere of competence. But I believe it's an accurate evaluation of how states will operate, as soon as these systems start being used to project power.

[seanmcdirmid]

I lived in China for almost 10 years and had to use cash all the time. Towards the end of that alipay and whatever wepay became popular. I moved back to the states and went back to using a credit/debit card or everything, and haven’t been to an ATM in a year and I don’t even bother carrying around cash at all anymore.

Alipay was solving a China-specific problem (credit card infrastructure and policies were never really very good), why would westerners stop using cards to awkwardly hold their phones up to QR scanners? That just isn’t going to happen. It is a sovereignty issue at all, it just doesn’t make sense. The west doesn’t have the small scale retailers that would benefit from that, everyone in retail can afford at least Square.

[phobosdeimos]

This is a good point. You can do things with your smartphone in China that not even advanced markets in Europe have figured out. The US tech sector isn't the only player anymore.

[seanmcdirmid]

Again, it’s not that they haven’t figured it out, it’s that there is no need to do it. I’ve seen how payments happen with the phone by exhanging QR codes, it’s a nice trick, but how could anyone claim that is better than the chip, swipe, and tap infrastructure already pervasive in the west? China basically skipped credit and debit cards, the West didn’t.

[phobosdeimos]

The only thing that is pervasive in the US are creditcards and the less said about those the better.

[seanmcdirmid]

That really isn't true at all. Ya, they have a high-ish merchant charge, but you don't see that as a consumer.

You can also go with debit cards if you want to, the only extra step is entering a PIN sometimes (for some purchases over some amount).

In Australia, they have it even better by having much more pervasive tap to pay in place. Why would anyone choose Alipay over tap to pay? You would have to be nuts.

[sanxiyn]

Tik Tok (developed by Chinese company Toutiao) seems to be doing fine globally. In general, I don't see any backlash against apps and services developed in China.

[seanmcdirmid]

Wechat has tried many tines and can’t even get much traction in HK. Most of the countries neighboring China, even Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar, are firmly in Facebook/google’s sphere.

Which countries is tiktok popular in?

[sanxiyn]

Tik Tok is popular throughout Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, etc. See https://www.quora.com/In-which-country-is-Tik-Tok-app-popula... for more.

[seanmcdirmid]

Thanks for the info, I had no idea about TikTok. Also, I don't think you needed to be downvoted in the parent post.

[wanghq]

Seems apple is doing well in China even though it also collects massive data, e.g. the icloud....basically in China apple follows the China gov policy.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/28/17055088/apple-chinese-ic...

[some_account]

> Google collects massive amounts of citizen data and it has close relations with the US military / security institutions. The combination means Google will never be a trusted operator in China.

But in the US and Europe, people don't have any problems with this combination. I blame the dumbing down of people in western culture to the degree that they go "i like free stuff" when confronted with the truth about why it's free.