[privacypoller]

I'm somewhat skeptical that we can draw any conclusions from the total vs. finished based on gross output. Writers are often described as either those who produce prodigiously and then cut mercilessly or those who refine every line before committing and do very little editing. I think programmers are similar. Metrics on the entire set are going to be muddled at best.

I would however agree that:

* those who produce & then cull generate a lot more than we see in the end product (due to those who do little editing, probably more than 10:1)

* writers/programmers get better at their craft, reducing the chaff to wheat ratio as they practice (like the original author saw in his work)

* well understood domains or themes are also more efficient (Michael Crichton didn't throw away 90% of his output; your average CRUD app doesn't either)

Finally, the written word tends to remain unchanged once committed (revisions tend to be minor in the overall scope), while code that is used changes dramatically. Long-running projects that are successful will see their application increase and evolve accordingly, so it's likely less valuable to track change over time if you're looking for total vs. finished effort metrics.