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> Combine that with Signal keeping the server not-quite-open and being weirdly insistent on not having federation, and I'm suspicious.

I'm not exactly sure what not-quite-open means (I thought the code was available, do you mean the server won't accept modified clients?), but Signal was federated once, with Cyanogen, and they opted not to continue the federated model. I don't think it's weird to not want to coordinate upgrades across servers in multiple organizations. Looking at existing federation models that mostly work, we have things like email, where there's no coordination and some servers never get upgraded, leading to a very low lowest common denominator; there's also IRC, where servers in a network really need to run the same software and are upgraded in lockstep -- that's fine enough if everyone is on board, but it doesn't look that much different than one organization running the servers.