[opportune]

I agree with many of your points but I do take issue with one: "during the reign of Xi’s predecessors this did seem to be a possibility but Xi’s policies and perhaps most importantly his ascension to President for Life ended any illusion that China would make this sort of evolution."

It may look like that to us now, but these things have a way of unraveling themselves faster than we expect. Xi is 65 and it's unlikely he'll try to hold on to power for more than the next 15 years. China's GDP/capita is currently right around where SK and Taiwan's were when they switched to democracy. And SK, Taiwan, and Japan all have tried, in many ways succeeding, to have their own advanced industries - it didn't spell the end of the world when they did so.

Dictatorships often crumble suddenly, and China is still on the approach of the trajectory that SK and Taiwan followed. For that reason I think it would be silly to write off China just yet.