[kgwgk]

Ok, so we can agree that if you got positive a result with p<0.05 and you repeat the experiment 100 times you expect to reproduce a positive result (i.e. getting a new p-value below 0.05)

a) if the null hypothesis is true, 5 times

b) if the null hypothesis is not true, anywhere between 0 and 100 times (depending on what is the true alternative)

This is quite different from your previous assertion that the expected number of successful replications would be 95 out of 100.