[whatyoucantsay]

If the US didn't honour its commitments and let Taiwan fall, Japan, Korea and all other neighbours would no longer be able to rely on US protection and seek their own weapons of mass destruction. The instability of that scenario would almost certainly lead to WW3 and be more detrimental to US interests than a skirmish over Taiwan.

> Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum.

You are ignorant. Taiwanese identification with China has been falling steadily for decades. According to current polling, somewhat less than half would support a declaration of independence and the inevitable conflict that would come with it, but a small single digit percentage are willing to join the PRC.

[sonnyblarney]

No. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would not directly threaten Japan or Korea as China has never had any claim or interest there, furthermore, it would massively increase Asian-US/EU ties. It would rock the world and everyone would be setting up new military ties to ensure border integrity.

It doesn't matter how popular Chinese reunification is today, because the mainland is getting ever more powerful and can orchestrate outcomes they desire. Did you think that Crimeans were pinning to rejoin Russia before the stealth-takeover? Not really.

"You are ignorant" - get off of HN if you're going rip like that.

[whatyoucantsay]

What is this "reunification" you speak of? Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. Before its current state, it was part of Japan. You could go back to the peak of the Qing Dynasty, but clearly that isn't a nation that currently exists.

It's like talking about "reunifying" Austria with Germany based on the previous borders of the Holy Roman Empire which once contained both.