[giergirey]

I think you're missing option 3, which is to avoid drawing a conclusion either way - assume that there's no definite answer, and that the experts' expertise is too narrow to support using their consensus outside small studies on college students buying and selling chocolate bars.

In this case I'm happy to conclude that it's not clear if people do systematically make poor judgements on important issues due to an in-built "loss aversion" heuristic.