[bosdev]

Consumers are just as bad at predicting the future as everyone else. Market research is great for making iterative improvements or learning what people are frustrated with, but it's data, not knowledge, and definitely not prognostication.

[com2kid]

This is incredibly true, a huge lesson from the iPhone is that consumers can not tell you what they cannot imagine.

Creating entirely new markets takes vision.

[scarface74]

They should have learned that lesson from the iPod - “No wireless, less space than a Nomad, Lame”

[com2kid]

Don't forget iTunes. Part of why iPod succeeded because it allowed stress free easy access to a giant % of the world's music, all at one constant price.

The iPod wasn't revolutionary in any respect, it was a perfectly executed version of what other people were already doing, that had a huge, incredibly well done, marketing push behind it, with even the smallest detail given attention.

Also the white ear buds were genius. Everyone who used them was advertising the product.

[scarface74]

That’s true. It took two years for Apple to sell thier first million. It wasn’t until both the music store came online and iTunes was released for Windows that it took off.

But even by 2007, a small percentage of the music people had on iPods were bought through iTunes (less than 10%?) according to Jobs “Thoughts on Music” essay.

[ryandrake]

I guess the conclusion might be: Unimaginative people are bad at predicting the future.

[Rexxar]

Imaginative people are bad too, they predict the wrong version of the future.