| First: Fuzzy thinking. The attackers have access to _a copy of the password_. The copy they got wasn't necessarily anywhere near the OTP secret. If I tell my phone number to my bank, my mom and my hairdresser, and you steal it from the hairdresser, this doesn't give you information about my bank account number, even though the bank stored that with the phone number. Bad guys successfully phish passwords plus OTP codes. We know they do this, hopefully you agree that in this case they don't have the OTP secret. So in this case 1Password worked out as well as having a separate TOTP program. Bad guys successfully steal form credentials out of browsers using various JS / DOM / etcetera flaws. Again, they get the OTP code but don't get the OTP secret regardless of whether you use 1Password Bad guys also install keyboard monitors/ logs/ etcetera. In some cases they could just as easily steal your 1Password vault, but in other cases (depending on how they do it) that isn't an option. I believe it's "very unlikely" in reality that they'll get your 1Password vault unless it's a targeted attack. A passive TLS tap also gives the bad guys the password plus OTP code but not the OTP secret. Unlike the former three examples this is going to be very environment specific. Your work may insist on having a passive TLS tap, and some banks definitely do (this is why they fought so hard to delay or prevent TLS 1.3) but obviously your home systems shouldn't allow such shenanigans. Nevertheless, while the passive tap can't be used to MITM your session it can steal any credentials you enter, again this doesn't include the OTP secret. Second: A ratchet enables us to recover from a situation where bad guys have our secret, forcing the bad guy to either repeat their attack to get a new secret or show their hand. TOTP lets us do this when bad guys get one TOTP code but not the underlying TOTP secret. |
I'm just going to focus on this, because it's not based on opinions of likelihood but simple facts. TOTP does not have a ratchet. If you copy the secret, you can use it indefinitely.
A ratchet is a counter (or similar) that goes up per use, so you can detect cloning. TOTP does not have this. It does not store any state. If I log in every day, and the attacker logs in every day, you can't look at the counters to see that something is very wrong, because there is no counter.