|
> If you extend out to timescales of 35 years, you not only have to worry about your employer disappearing, but you also have to worry about your industry and municipality disappearing. That's a very good point. For example, if the U.S. ever passes a law like GDPR, the growth prospects of Google and Facebook could look very different. They could also end up saturating their markets (e.g., if you double Facebook's user base a couple more times, there will be no new users left on the planet - China is already closed to them). And the price of a stock is based on earnings growth rate. Also, a large percentage of the recent growth of the S&P 500 has been due to the growth of a handful of big tech companies. If anything happens to their business models, not only will their stocks take a hit, but so will the S&P 500. There's also no guarantee that Google, Facebook, etc. will be the leaders in new industries and technologies that emerge over the next 35 years - new startups could grab these markets. There's not even a guarantee that Google, Facebook, etc. will continue to dominate their current industries - they could be replaced by startups, just as they did to their predecessors. Finally, tech companies could become more globalized over this time period, leading to fewer of their employees having jobs in California and more having jobs elsewhere in the world. |