| > It's not speculation: there are already markets (Norway) where close to 50% of all new cars sold are EVs. The latter fails to support the former. A country whose entire population is less than the size of a large city can't be extrapolated, especially since so many other conditions (e.g. economic ones) don't hold. > as governments set mandates for electrification. This reads as future tense, so a speculation (upon which you're basing your speculation). > But I do think we'll see significant electrification in many markets during the 2020s, with double-digit market share globally for BEVs by 2030 "Significant" electrification is still a far cry from your speculation of "largely electrified" ground transportation. 10% is enough for "double-digit", and that still corresponds to getting to 50% around the 50 year mark (assuming "market share" means cars on the road, not just new production). > and >50% share in some markets (China, parts of Europe). You really need to exclude China, or at least consider it completely separately, considering how the market is skewed in favor of centralized decision making versus consumer choices and freedoms. It may be interesting for any discussion of emissions, environment, availability of technology, EV competition on the global market, or anything like that, but not for consumer adoption elsewhere. > (btw: You do not need a garage or carport for EV charging. Chargers can be, and very often are in my experience, installed outdoors.) Again, "very often" fails to provide any actual numbers. Did you cleverly omit the qualifier "residential" from the above, just to make it true? Were they installed by (i.e. at the individual behest of) the residents themselves, without non-scalable subsidies/support? A government pilot program to spur the 1% early adopters by making it convenient to charge at home can have a politically bad smell if scaled to 10x. As I said, in my experience, the vast majority of cars in my neighborhood are actually parked where installing a dedicated circuit (let alone a fast charger) is currently impractical, if not impossible. You can continue to speculate all you want about regulations changing or cities installing chargers in the middle of sidewalks, but, today, it's still fantasy. Bottom line, today, BEVs are 1%, and ICE isn't going away, in large part, any time soon. Consumers who wish to make decisions based on emissions impact would do well not to just to buy into the marketing and wishful thinking of EV proponents and discount the impact of choosing driving (when there is a choice). Fortunately, the impact difference is also typically closely reflected in the price difference, at least for low-margin, high-competition markets (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17578591). |