[ethbro]

Small point: the risk calculus changes a bit if you buy after housing market deleveraging (e.g. 2009).

You can never know when things are over-valued, but you can get a good sense when things are undervalued.

And since the housing market has both momentum (nearby sales affect comps, more inventory than sales, some substitutability) and adjusts slowly, there's time to buy after it bottoms.

Stock market timing doesn't work for many reasons, but a lot of those don't hold for the real estate market.

[closeparen]

Liquidity also plummets during a deleveraging. Homeowners wait for the recovery to sell; lenders wait for the recovery to underwrite. Home values crossing into your price range doesn't mean you can actually buy one, unless it's for cash at a foreclosure auction.