[stolee]

In your calculation, you are assuming that all of those files are in independent parts of the folder hierarchy. In practice, deep directory structures mean that single commits are likely focused in a few very deep folders. We ran the statistics on a number of repos with different shapes to come up with this number, and it covers 99% of commits that we measured.

[kingosticks]

That is true and I do agree. Thanks for clarifying and for the informative write-up, it's a great use of bloom filters.