[sandov]

I think the right way to measure the correctness of the model is to compare it with various other predictions:

-Predictions from the general public

-Predictions from football experts

-Predictions from other mathematical models

For example: If over time, the new model is 5% better than the best of the old models, then it's very good.

Doesn't make much sense to compare it with reality and jump to the conclussion that the model doesn't work because no prediction can be 100% accurate.