[raverbashing]

it is captured in the 95% but that was probably a bit overestimated (and there are always unknown biases and improbable events can happen)

What's wrong is thinking 95% chance of winning means they will win

[kgwgk]

So it was not captured in the (overestimated) 95% :-) But I agree, the most likely thing, even if the probability was perfectly known, is not always what happens.