[sokoloff]

> But if it's overvalued then short the stock!

To put the disclaimer up front: I have.

I think Tesla's going to run out of cash and be forced to raise on disadvantageous terms.

As a car company, they would be unbelievably overvalued. As an energy company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a solar company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a battery tech company, it's unclear, but probably still overvalued or wildly overvalued. I don't see how even that combination, along with the current and projected cash burn rate, lets them catch up to their current valuation let alone exceed it before needing to raise capital.

I love the tech, daily drive (a non-Tesla) electric, and hope EVs continue to grow in market share; I just don't see the company as being nearly worth the current market cap.

[poulsbohemian]

Here's the mental gymnastics I go through, and as it sounds like you have done some thinking on this, perhaps you have insight... if Tesla eventually reaches a point of desperation, isn't it reasonable to think they would sell to some better-capitalized party, at which point the stock would have value (in conversion to stock of the other party, if nothing else)? So, while it might currently be overvalued at ~ $300/share, if they succeed in their goals that will seem cheap, and if they fail you'll still more than get your money back out of it. Is that just misguided optimism on my part?

[jcranmer]

It's possible to see it as not wildly overvalued if you think that they will hold significant market share in all of those different markets.

That said, it's still hard to see how they can get there, considering that at present, they are the smallest mass-market car company by volume (if you want to call them mass market), a non-entity in the energy business, and a small player in an oversaturated solar market--and the synergy between solar and car manufacturing doesn't really exist.

[spectrum1234]

2 words. Last one is Musk.