Relative to the Cold War, where biggest threat was the paranoid Soviet leadership overreacting to their expectation of a first strike by the West, there don't seem to be that many scenarios where a war seems likely.
I wouldn't be too sure about that, the Cold War wasn't a one-sided affair where only the Soviets overreacted, that was a common theme for both sides due to the stakes at play.
I also wouldn't say a scenario like that has become less likely, depending on how you look at it, especially in the context of US nuclear force modernization [0], it could actually become much more likely.
Because irrational people exist everywhere and I have no doubt there are plenty of people around, some of them probably in very powerful positions, who are still busy "wargaming" a thermonuclear scenario in which they could end up as "winners".
I don't think the threat level changed greatly, the most likely scenario is a mistake launch and crazy officer. Do you know Russia has a system of automatic retaliation attack?
As for the war threat - both sides had their hotheads during the Cold War, but in the end they were overruled.
I also wouldn't say a scenario like that has become less likely, depending on how you look at it, especially in the context of US nuclear force modernization [0], it could actually become much more likely.
Because irrational people exist everywhere and I have no doubt there are plenty of people around, some of them probably in very powerful positions, who are still busy "wargaming" a thermonuclear scenario in which they could end up as "winners".
[0] https://thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-moderni...