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by chatman 2899 days ago
The decline has begun. It will soon be time for Intel to shut shop.
2 comments

I mean, they missed a few trends and are having some scaling issues on their next generation of transistors but they made like $60 billion in revenue last year and the company is worth ~$240 billion. I think they're going to be around for a few more years.
The taller they stand, the harder they fall.
No, actually. In tech, the typical path of a failed giant is slow decline for a while, a few wild gyrations, and finally patent trolling and brand necrophilia.
I am aware AMD has been making great strides lately, but you have to remember that AMD has a decade-long hole to dig themselves out of.

The only game in town has been Intel for almost 12 years now. When the Core lineup was released in 2006 [1], the wind quickly went out of AMD's sails. [2] AMD had almost matched Intel in market share, they just need to keep the innovation coming. The problem was Bulldozer and similar architectures just weren't competitive. Even with double the core count, Intel's chips were simply better for the vast majority of workloads. [3]

The CPU wars had gotten so one-sided that I believe Intel stopped pushing. With the exception of Gulftown [4], four cores was the name of the game from Kentsfield in 2006 [5] until Kaby Lake in 2017 [6]. Intel released it's first desktop dual-core processor on April 16, 2005 [7]. Quad-core Intel chips came January 8, 2007 [8]. Less than two years led to an extra two cores in the consumer level CPU market, and that was the end for over 10 years.

When the Zen architecture was release to consumers on Febuary 28, 2017 [9], Intel checked under the couch and magically found two extra cores. Coffee Lake was released on October 5, 2017 [10]. Funny how real competition changed a decade of stagnation, isn't it? If Zen didn't do as well as it did, I can see the 8th generation chips staying quad-core.

The supercomputer market is also dominated by Intel. I count two (2) supercomputers using Opterons [11]. Everything else is POWER or Xeon. All Apple computers use Intel CPUs.

Ryzen, Threadripper and EPYC are great products and offer a staggering increase in performance over what the previous generation chips. It's far from "game over".

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Core_2#Models

2: https://www.cpubenchmark.net/market_share.html

3: https://www.hardocp.com/article/2011/10/11/amd_bulldozer_fx8...

4: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_Core_i7_micropro...

5: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentsfield_(microprocessor)

6: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaby_Lake

7: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_D#Smithfield

8: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentsfield_(microprocessor)

9: https://www.mobipicker.com/amd-ryzen-7-1800x-1700x-1700-rele...

10: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coffee_Lake 11: https://www.top500.org/list/2018/06/