| > In the engineering/academic world, grades do matter and are highly predictive of ability. People with poorer grades often struggle a lot. This is a purely empirical question to which you seem to have simply assumed an answer. While there are difficulties to studying this question empirically there have been solid studies to this effect. I've seen a few solid survey papers on personnel selection methods; a solid example is Schmidt and Hunter (1998). Schmidt and a couple of others published an updated version of the survey as a working paper in 2016[1], which has a clear section on GPA: > The validity value for grade point average (GPA) in Table 1 is for college and graduate level grade point averages. No estimates are available for high school grade point average, which may have validity higher than the .34 in Table 1. Apparently most of the validity of GPA is captured by GMA, because the incremental validity of GPA is negligible (less than .01). GPA has not been studied in relation to training performance, where its validity might be expected to be higher than the .34 for job performance, because of the strong resemblance between training programs and classroom demands. (GMA in this context is a "general mental ability test"—basically an IQ test.) This observation does not lend much credence to the idea that grades are "highly predictive of ability" or that people with low grades "often struggle a lot". [1]: https://home.ubalt.edu/tmitch/645/articles/2016-100%20Yrs%20... |
The paper does not seem to control for differences between colleges. It's unsurprising that the predictive value of, say, 3.8 GPA would massively differ between individual schools.