[stmw]

Well, the statistical trouble is that if some ER treatment costs $100K and has a 50% chance of saving someone's life (and prolonging it by 15 years), or else not making a difference, the end result is that 50% of spending takes place in the last 10 minutes of people's lives.

[analyticascent]

Not only that, but using such a short time period would fail to distinguish Medicare expenditure trends and any other method of payment - which is why people look at the last few years of someone's life and whether that jump in costs is making any difference.

To extend your ER scenario, would that $100K expenditure be reasonable if it only prolonged someone's life by a year or so?