[pieguy]

Let me say it again in a different way. My resolution of the paradox is that the prisoner incorrectly negates "x will happen" as "x won't happen" instead of negating "x definitely will happen" as "x might not happen". Thus,the prisoner cannot conclude that the hanging won't be a surprise. The prisoner can only conclude that the hanging might not be a surprise.

[p1esk]

It seems like you're right again, but I don't have time to think more about this at the moment, unfortunately.