[throwawaymath]

I'm going to have to push back on your first point about compensation between large and small companies. At a large brand name tech company, $300k isn't uncommon for a few years of experience in SFBA or NYC. You don't need to land on the right team or have magical luck, you just need to be a solid performer. Even though startups are increasing base salary, they don't have liquid RSUs as a rule and (in my experience) pay smaller bonuses overall.

I would say that if a software engineer is optimizing for income maximization they should almost certainly join one of FAANG, unless they have a formidable appetite for risk and uncertainty. Consider some of the data compiled here: https://www.levels.fyi.