[slededit]

It certainly solved a lot of problems, the US is at full employment now. It took over a decade for interest rates to start ticking up with the exception of the housing market and stocks. The money supply is only one factor in inflation, velocity is the other and it has been extremely low for a long time.

[tpm]

Some EU countries are at more or less full employment too. I wonder how long that will last.

What the article does not mention is that of course many people from Southern Europe have migrated north to find work. We now see for example young people from Spain coming to Eastern Central Europe (V4 countries), I think that's happening for the first time in history.

[vivafrance]

Inflation is rampant in many areas right now. It’s dishonest to claim inflation is low because TVs are still cheap when house prices, healthcare, and education are exploding. Furthermore, if the unemployment rate was as low as is advertised we would be seeing wage growth. The fact that wages are not rising is evidence that the unemployment numbers are fudged. The fact that Trump was elected is evidence that the majority of people are unhappy with the “recovery”.

[JumpCrisscross]

> if the unemployment rate was as low as is advertised we would be seeing wage growth

Median usual weekly real earnings for Americans 16 and over were 5% higher in Q1 2018 then they were Q4 of 2007 [1]. From Q1 2014 to Q1 2018, we've seen that statistic grow at about 1% per year (CAGR).

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

[markkanof]

But that increase in wages does not seem to be keeping up with inflation, which translates to a net loss for the average person.

http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/united-states/histor...

[JumpCrisscross]

> that increase in wages does not seem to be keeping up with inflation

In economics, the "real value of a good or other entity has been adjusted for inflation" [1]. The statistic above is thus inflation adjusted. Nominal wages (i.e. those not adjusted for inflation) are up close to 30% between May 2007 and May 2018 [2], or 2.3% per year [3].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_(eco...

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003

[3] (26.9 / 20.84) ^ (1 / 11) - 1

[lifty]

Are housing, healthcare and education costs included in the inflation numbers?

[JumpCrisscross]

> Are housing, healthcare and education costs included in the inflation numbers?

Yes, CPI includes housing, healthcare and education. The only measures commonly stripped out are food and energy, to exclude commodity volatility; that measure is presented as "core inflation" and is more useful when considering things like interest rates than real wages.

[s73v3r_]

It's also dishonest to claim that inflation is rampant and that the unemployment numbers are fudged.

[walshemj]

Governments always fudge employment figures and inflation lol

You just define your inflation metric to suit normally by ignoring things that have gone up more eg housing and including things that are deflating like say TV's and white goods.

[dragonwriter]

> Governments always fudge employment figures and inflation lol

Some governments might, but governments actually need this information for planning, so ones with even modest levels of transparency are unlikely to do much of it, because it would be too easy to detect if it wasn't the only count, and because it would foul their own planning if it was.

> You just define your inflation metric to suit normally by ignoring things that have gone up more eg housing and including things that are deflating like say TV's and white goods.

Yes, one could in theory do that, but what country specifically does that (with citations to specific supporting information)? Many countries report many different inflation indicators some designed to isolate particular contributions that add noise (either because of high seasonality or high-but-irregular volatility), but they tend to also have measures which include those figures, which tend to be the main figure.

[walshemj]

No offence that's very naïve

[s73v3r_]

"Governments always fudge employment figures and inflation lol"

Citation needed.

[walshemj]

Thatcher's tory government encouraging doctors to put long term unemployed on disability is well known in the UK.

An the inflation that's direct from some one who works in the ONS in the UK