[Nasrudith]

I know that I am not the typical use case for several reasons including the failure of voice recognition with speech impediments but I doubt voice will be the way forward any more than smart watches were - being niche at best.

First off with speech everyone can tell what you are doing and it is obtrusive - look at the old DMV signs against cellphones back from when they could literally just call.

Second it is just plain worse as an interface - just try to use a phone tree. People have dutifully ignored phone tree based answering machines existence except for the visually impaired who frankly lack options and must use what everyone else would consider useless.

Third there is less to do with it and thus less reason to get involved with the frontier. Again the same trap as the smart watch. People asked what can you do with it and the iWatch flopped despite Apple trendiness.

Direct thought reading might work better but that is in the easier said than done category. They can't even make an acceptably accurate non-invasive glucose meter so it is very unlikely to come out in consumer goods.

Google glass interestingly also largely flopped for several reasons despite heading in the opposite direction and provoked sheer irrational hatred above and beyond all other carriable or constantly recording cameras. AR sounds nice but they also need to factor in the significant glasses wearing population. Also apparently had short battery life for something to be worn as a HUD.

Noting where things can go wrong is easy compared to figuring out where to go in the future even with caveats like "10 years directed research lead time". I think the market has matured for personal electronics now until they can offer "magic" again. VR is neat but a niche in chicken and egg situation.

[ewzimm]

I appreciate your sense of doubt about often overblown predictions for the usefulness of the next new thing, but I think some of your claims are a bit too pessimistic. The Apple Watch can hardly be considered a flop. They're now selling 8 million per quarter and have outsold the entire Swiss watch industry. In just 3 years, it became the most popular watch in the world.

Now more and more people have a voice-activated assistant not only in certain rooms of their home or in their pocket, but also on their wrist. It might seem to be a small thing not to have to reach into your pocket to invoke a voice assistant, but that small amount of time saved really adds up, especially if you're doing something with your hands like cooking or holding a baby, which some people still do!

[Retra]

Holiday season comes around and everybody gets Apple Watches. Doesn't mean they're good. It often means people feel compelled to buy things they don't want, because gift buying is hard. It happens every year.

[arkades]

>including the failure of voice recognition with speech impediments

There’s a massive wave of geriatrics coming, and various dysarthrias (be it as significant as a stroke or as minor as edentulism or poorly fitting dentures) are extraordinarily common.

Any voice tech that can’t handle speech impediments isn’t ready for the market - it’s just too big a demographic chunk.

[magic_beans]

I’m positive Google Glass was just released at the wrong moment to the worst possible people. AR is the next wave. The question is when.

[criddell]

For me, it's when AR doesn't require glasses.