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by jpao79 2923 days ago
So some random thoughts on the case for this time its actually different are:

1.) The internet and computing has increased the flow of information. Investments in data mining and data science by the Fed lets it make better decisions and test stuff iteratively and react to changes faster. Companies can also track inventory in a more controlled manner and not build too much too fast. Employees can find prevailing wage information easier to find better, more productive jobs. Home buyers can see how overvalued their houses are relative to other cities.

The internet and computing is enabling a much higher control loop (a.k.a. a steeper gradient descent toward optimal economic output based on the production needs for the current population).

2.) Steady reduction in the reliance on oil and gas. Much of the crazy inflation in past cycles was due to oil and gas shortages.

Would love to get opinions and more cases for why its different.

3 comments

Your second point is interesting since the US Dollar is the primary currency used for the oil trade. Demand for dollars beyond our borders lets us export our debt through inflation. If there is less reliance on oil, demand for dollars to service that market goes down and so does our ability to pass part of our debt off on to everyone who holds dollars. No idea if this is a large enough effect to matter or if there are other feedback loops that counteract it but decreased oil usage could have its own negative economic effects that aren't immediately apparent.
To add on to #1, the surface area of "tech" is so much larger than in the pre-mobile-phone, pre-web-2.0 (!!!) era. There should be a lot more dollars in tech than there were before 2005. There are more eco-systems to build on than ever and more consumer and business spending that follows.
There is still a large human component that can act irradicatly, ignorantly, or just straight up abuse more information for personal benefit, especially if other people or industries are lagging behind the changes in technology and information.