[UnFleshedOne]

You should not be asking "how likely it is that natural processes could have created life that invented mcdonalds and justin bieber" but "how likely it is that natural processes could have created _some kind_ of intelligent life".

Specific details of a given example (us, the one example we know about) are irrelevant.

In other words: take a coin, throw it 1000 times and record the results. Now calculate the probability of the exact outcome you just got. Pretty low, yet you just did it. Now ask another question -- how likely is that at least 200 of those results are heads? Pretty high.

How unlikely life is is a question of just how big the set of results qualifying as _life_ is. We are (probably) just one possible configuration.