Once the PIP starts, start asking coworkers you trust if they'll provide a reference and looking for a new gig. Your chances of coming back from a PIP are non-zero, but at the same time exceedingly low. You'll expend less effort moving to another gig with a chance you'll land with a better skilled manager (assuming your manager is the problem, and not you). You might even get a salary/comp bump out of the move.
This advice is more valid in our current, exceedingly tight, labor market and less so when unemployment goes up again (be prepared for a longer search, network more aggressively, and have a longer emergency fund runway).
I wouldn't b surprised if lots of people comes back from a PIP. But I would be surprised if my co-workers were bragging about that time they survived a PIP.
ie. it's likely we believe the odds to be low, because it's not something people talk about.
This advice is more valid in our current, exceedingly tight, labor market and less so when unemployment goes up again (be prepared for a longer search, network more aggressively, and have a longer emergency fund runway).