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by txsh 2922 days ago
Exactly.

Population deceleration is a global crisis and virtually nobody is talking about it. It could mean the end of Western civilization.

Our governments are built upon the assumption that the population will continue to increase, that there will be more taxpayers tomorrow to shoulder the burden of today’s spending. When the population begins to decrease in a few decades, every successive generation will have a lower standard of living than the one that proceded it. Having children will become more expensive which will lead to even more decline. Western countries will enter a death spiral and might never escape.

2 comments

You're implying that technology won't be able to increase productivity. One of the biggest topics people are talking about is automation taking jobs, so why do we need to worry about population size?

Human population grows exponentially, earth has finite resources. Constant population growth is suicidal.

> You're implying that technology won't be able to increase productivity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secular_stagnation_theory

A component of which is the observation that real production growth has been essentially zero since the 1980s. So clearly you can have technological advances without any productivity growth.

> Human population grows exponentially, earth has finite resources. Constant population growth is suicidal.

Not nearly as suicidal as population decline, obviously.

More nuanced, there are plenty of species, and races within species, that refuse to have their population grow. It doesn't end well.

> So clearly you can have technological advances without any productivity growth.

A little perspective is required. From the 1860’s to the 1960’s we went from candles and horses to computers and the moon landing. In the past 50 years nothing comparable to electricity, automobiles, flight, space flight, antibiotics, refrigeration, computers, telephones, radio, nuclear power, etc. has been invented. We have only refined technology invented by our great grandparents. Our civilization is stagnant and incapable of producing the kind of people who can move us forward. And, when the population begins to decline, we’ll begin to regress. Our great grandchildren might only read about airplanes in books.

> Population deceleration is a global crisis

Earth (global) problem is overpopulation. Depopulation is only a problem for western civilization/highly developed countries. Ask India, China or African countries do they need more citizens.

You are correct - developing nations such as China, India, and many countries in Africa do need more people in order to grow.

Unfortunately, current models show their growth ending before they are wealthy.

In other words - there's a good chance these countries will get old before they get rich.

China is #1 example of this:

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-birth-l...