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by Symmetry 2947 days ago
I don't think anybody would claim that even the weak form of the EMH applies in all cases. Like the idea that objects of different weights fall at the same speed it's an approximation that can be very close to true in some cases but can be badly misleading in others. If you've ever listened to economists talk about prediction markets they always seem to bring up the idea that markets with low capitalization have low efficiency.

And even looking at the highly capitalized stock market I know at least one story of a major player that got its start noticing a violation of weak-form efficiency and becoming very rich by fixing the violation.

There's no reason to think that actual markets are now finally efficient and in fact there are some that are publicly know, but which only bring a small return and require decades of investment to fix so nobody is interested in trying.