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by shmed 2937 days ago
The main point from an investor perspective is that if anything happens to the "ads market" landscape, Google as a whole will be greatly affected. For example, new legislation surrounding targeted advertising or use of personal identifiable information for marketing purpose could have a major impact on Google. And those are not some far fetch and unlikely scenario. Some government are eager to put some rules and barriers to protect user privacy and to limit what can be done with it (specially in Europe), and many consumers agree and also care about "their" data. Legislation is not the only risk, even technological breakthrough could shake the ad industry. For example, smartphone became a big deal in the span of very few years. It took Google and Facebook a couple years to adapt to shifting advertising revenue from web browsing to mobile browsing. If you remember some of the early financial reports from Facebook back in 2012, most of them were disappointing due to the fact that many of their users shifted to mobile browsing, and Facebook had a really hard time find a way to display ads on mobile that would result in a click. Their whole business was impacted and it took them a couple years to start growing their ad business again.

The main point is, if you only make money by selling 1 thing (which is Ads, regardless of what medium they use to show their ads), then if something actually happens to that source of revenue, the effect is major. The more diversified your revenue source is, the less likely it is that a single event will affect your company in a major way. Again, not saying Google doesn't have many products, and obviously, having search ads, youtube ads, mobile ads, (and more) as different mediums help mitigate some of the risk that could affect those individual products, but they are still very much exposed to the risks of a changing market.

1 comments

Sure.

But you can apply the same logic to Windows (desktop + server) + office. Eg, Chinese government can decide tomorrow that they mandate all government PCs run Linux. And that wont distinguish between Office or OS.

As I already suggested, I am not disputing Google's reliance on Ads, but the pie chart is not convincing because of far more reasons than Ads.

You are right, and that's why diversity of revenue is a good thing. If tomorrow Office and Windows drop revenue by half, Microsoft as a whole wont drop revenue by half, and I guess that's the main point the pie chart is making.

But I also agree with you that the Pie Chart might not be completely accurate and might be oversimplifying the situation, but I think there's no denying Microsoft is one of the most diversified tech company out there in term of revenue.