[arkades]

The little review “suggesting that how fit you think you are affects your risk of death more than how fit you actually are,” seems to not have parsed the studies it claims to be quoting.

“No matter how they ran the numbers, if people thought they were “a lot less active” than their peers, this was associated with a statistically significant higher risk of death: at least 18% when compared to the general population (those whose data were not included), and up to 71% higher when compared to people who thought they were “more active.” Again, this is regardless of actual physical activity or other health risk factors (smoking, being overweight, etc.).”

This was -after- controlling for actual fitness (eg. BMI). That doesn’t mean “perception matters more than BMI,” it means “perception matters a lot in explaining the variance that remains after removing all the variability explained by actual fitness.”

The second study wasn’t just about “activity perception.” It came with a positive message from authority figures, and offered an additional validation of an otherwise low-prestige job. Both of these things might contribute to a motivation-driven short term effect that has nothing at all to do with long term self-perception not long term mortality.