[sheepmullet]

> Actually I think long term success is mostly about luck and starting privilege

From the perspective of a culture/society? No way.

For example you have no choice that you grew up in a single parent household - but society and culture have a huge influence over how likely/often that happens.

Etc etc etc.

[mlthoughts2018]

Your comment seems to prove my point: a society or culture has a huge influence on e.g. whether you are disqualified from certain education opportunities because of your gender, or whether you experience debilitating anxiety or stress growing up because of the laws your country mandates regarding sexual orientation.

If you are lucky and grow up without those factors, you might realize more of your education potential, and then have a greater labor product output, and then gain more income from better-paying employers, all because of that early luck regarding what country you were born in.

So the characteristic of interest, which country you were born in, plays a dominant role in success metrics of your life outcome, and this characteristic is not something under the control of the individual (as you point out, you have no choice about where you grew up).

So it seems your example proves the point: characteristics we attribute to the volition of an individual (things like charisma, hard work, positive attitude, persistence, etc.) -- these are not nearly as important as factors with no volitional component (your gender, your country of origin, the wealth of your parents, your genetics in terms of height, athletic prowess, attractiveness, and so forth).

So in the end, success is determined by the random assignment of characteristics we don't control for ourselves -- a phenomenon known as "luck."