[loblollyboy]

Of course, like raking leaves in your lawn, you’re going to run into a kind of diminishing returns situation. So I agree, albeit with an obvious point, My only qualm (beyond the banality of the thesis) is that this dude is forgetting about some other cool advances, such as the sharing economy (Uber/Lyft and airbnb) which kind of changed the world a little, messenger apps (which made day to day life a little more convenient for many and also played a role in some big geopolitical events). Also just b/c google launched its search engine in 99 or whatever doesn’t mean that they stopped innovating - incremental improvements in search have made it 1000x what it was then, and if you showed google maps to someone from 2000, they would think it is magic. The tools for making tech have gotten a lot better too, even if most of the use cases have already been covered. AI and blockchain can be revolutionary. The problem is how we structure society, where we’re all either just trying to make our daily bread or get rich, and this leads to a lot of misdirected effort.

[acdha]

> this dude is forgetting about some other cool advances, such as the sharing economy (Uber/Lyft and airbnb) which kind of changed the world a little

Beyond the “sharing” misnomer, those were proven concepts with existing industries. So far what's been proved is that if you're willing to pour billions of dollars into a company you can produce a better app than the incumbents, and that you can see short-term gains if you're willing to break the law and/or subsidize heavily.

> if you showed google maps to someone from 2000, they would think it is magic.

By 2000 the most likely reaction would have been “oh, it's like MapQuest but faster”. Google Maps reflects a lot of evolutionary improvements but the big change was the rise of the advertising model meaning that you didn't have to pay a third-party for GIS software or a subscription service to get annual map updates.

[dragonwriter]

> > if you showed google maps to someone from 2000, they would think it is magic.

> By 2000 the most likely reaction would have been “oh, it's like MapQuest but faster”.

Depends on context. Sure, maybe if you showed it to them on desktop with basic operations (e.g., turned off traffic display, etc.)

Show using it on mobile for navigation with “Ok, Google, navigate to...” with turn-by-turn navigation and real-time, traffic-based route adjustment with voice promoted and confirmation, and it's at least as far beyond 2000s MapQuest as that version of MapQuest is above a dead-tree book of maps.

[TheOtherHobbes]

It's not obvious the sharing economy is actually a win. It's certainly a change, but particularly with Uber and with gig-economy delivery services, drivers aren't necessarily happier, better paid, and less stressed than they would have been with a less disrupted job.

Sometimes the consequences take a while to work through. What will Amazon do after it kills bricks and mortar? How many customers will it have when most of the population is barely scraping by with gig economy now-you-see-it-now-you-don't income?

[thisisit]

His point is most, not all, tech innovations don't really pan out. Sure there are examples of great products but there also examples of big duds. For example, according to an EPI paper sharing economy accounts for less than 0.1% of total economy:

https://www.epi.org/press/uber-drivers-earn-the-equivalent-o...

So, not a win really. At least not right now.

[Eridrus]

Almost all innovation in general doesn't pan out.

Look at all the money we spend on medical/pharma research. Most of it doesn't pan out, but we're basically ok with that since the rewards are pretty large when it does.

[gaius]

cool advances, such as the sharing economy (Uber/Lyft and airbnb)

Unlicensed minicabs and illegal sublets had already been invented. Putting an app on them is not exactly innovative.

[redial]

That is not his point. His point is that big flashy introductions never (almost) materialize in something truly world-changing. When was the sharing economy introduced? No one knows, it just happened organically.