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by deepnotderp 2961 days ago
Not gonna predict the future 1-2 decades out, since that's a fool's errand, but here's a grab bag of relevant points:

1. Moore's Law is undoubtedly slowing, but in the foreseeable future, it will likely continue. On the other hand, Dennnard Scaling which is already basically dead, will be the crunch you will likely feel more. Exponential transistors aren't too useful if they still consume so much power. To mitigate leakage we moved to FinFETs... Which actually made dynamic power worse.

2. You might be interested to know that data movement (predominantly memory access) costs orders of magnitude more than computation, especially relevant to AI compute which requires large amounts of access. These global wires already suck and don't seem to be getting any better in the foreseeable future.

3. Foundries have already been using (and thus expending) "scaling boosters" to reach their density goals. Most of these are one-time use effects that won't provide significant continuous scaling capability.