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by empath75 2962 days ago
There will eventually be a pets.com of the tech bubble.

Something like Tesla or Uber or Blue Apron going belly up.

4 comments

Pets.com is probably the wrong example from the 90s. Webvan.com is a bit better: hundreds of millions spent on actual warehouses, trucks and more.

Pets.com clearly overspent on advertising, but I don't think they risked too many assets on the line. So when Pets.com eventually died, it wasn't a big deal. Its funny, because they had superbowl commercials and huge outreach. But nothing like like Webvan's huge warehouses or fleets of trucks.

I recall Webvan well. Still have a few of their crates holding stuff in my attic[1].

No idea what it looked like elsewhere, but their spending blitz in the Bay Area was incredible. Everywhere you looked, there was their name. For a little while...

[1] When they first launched, they used really high-quality, solid crates for deliveries that were well worth the too-cheap deposit.

Pets.com was a potent and visible symbol that the money for nothing dotcom era was over.

I suspect that the upthread poster picked exactly the right 90s example for what they wanted.

Or take a look at Cargolifter. They wanted to carry goods with Zeppelins around the world. Their facilities are still the largest free standing buildings on the planet, with an entire tropical resort in the former main hangar.
Advertising seems like a good description of the subsidy applied by Uber and Blue Apron?
Blue Apron going belly up won't even create ripples. They are not in the same league as the other 2 companies you mentioned. Just saying..
Also, if you look at the bleak bleak picture of Blue Apron's stock price since IPO, them going bankrupt wouldn't even be close to shocking.
Pets.com only had 320 employees when its IPO flopped.
It is a different era now. Top 6 most valuable companies are all tech now. Blue Apron has laid off more employees in the past year than pets.com had in total.
Tesla and Uber aren't going anywhere. There's way too much invested for them not to secure another tiny drop in the bucket to keep going. That doesn't necessarily mean it's a good idea ("throwing good money after bad"), but that's the reality of what will happen, especially since it will probably be someone else's money as they dilute.
Tesla's financials are terrifying. I hope that Tesla succeeds, and I believe that they can. However, there is nothing about the company that makes an investment in TSLA feel like a sure thing to me.
Look at Ford http://www.businessinsider.com/ford-f-150-truck-production-m...

A fire accident of a supplier of Ford caused this, it wasn't even on their hands. Any freak/unlucky accident plus Tesla being tight with cash and time you do the math.

Oh ya, I hear you. I worked at GM in the early 2000s and I remember personally dealing with an issue where we needed over 100,000 of a particular part for a recall and the vendor could only supply about 2000/month (not including what we needed for current production). Most of the other major automakers also used that part and they needed them for recalls too! It was insane.

I've been in automotive ever since and worked for a number of the major automakers and I currently do a lot of consulting for one automaker (not Tesla). So, I understand very well how one tiny thing can really throw a wrench in production (or sales, or service).

But, Tesla has an illogical amount of goodwill right now and they can't seem to burn through it. So, until that goodwill really starts to dwindle, there are going to be investors willing to take preferred stock.

There's a chance Tesla will not exist as an operating company this time next year. Given their published financials, it wouldn't take much at all.

There's a chance Tesla will last a century, and people will point and say see! I told you they weren't going anywhere!

You got it exactly right.

What is beautiful with this is that whatever happens next year, the "winning" camps will say that they knew this would happen.

It is a game of Statistics and chance at this point. Both outcomes are possible, but once the outcome is clear, the ones that got it right will dismiss it is based on luck and chance at this point.

This reminds me of the quote that the four most expensive words in investing are "this time it's different".
Hooboy, it only takes a bit of loss of confidence for a corporation to liquidate. Never underestimate the difficulty level of refinancing corporate debt in a shaky macro environment.
Isn't this what we said about the housing market a decade ago?
Blue Apron stock is barely holding on. It going away won’t do much really. Not compared to the other huge examples.