[threeseed]

This makes no sense. China was always going to develop more stuff locally and the US influence in the IT space was always going to decline. It's just a fact when you have a country as big as China rising in prominence and strength you will see declines elsewhere.

But when it comes to consumer products the US still has an innate understanding of how to build products for the world. And China may be great at building and duplicating but they haven't yet demonstrated how to do this from scratch.

[twblalock]

Every successful industrialized nation after the first one (the UK) started by copying the products of other nations. Germany was a notable early case of this. So was Japan.

China did the same thing, and now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China. They are already there in software -- WeChat/WePay is a really big deal and it outcompetes payment systems from American tech companies. I suspect we will soon see successful Chinese innovations in AI, semiconductors, and automobiles.

[dmix]

> now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China

People have been saying this forever and we're still waiting for any sign of it. People love to over-simplify economics and make the big assumption that the historical progress seen in the west in previous eras is a repeatable system on a simple arc trajectory of advancement. But I personally believe it is as much a product of the local (work) culture, politics, and economic systems... not simply just a side-effect of the creation of a middle class.

Just look at Japan. They had a great period of innovation within a particular period of chaos where the old cultural rules weren't being imposed and whole new industries were developed. Which later became crippled by a variety of forces, including most notably culture and how 'elders'/successful companies are treated like gods, while upstarts became marginalized as the larger firms became politically entrenched. Now that the systems are in place the creative class has largely been stamped out.

That had little to do with Japan's particular position on some growth model but a variety of distinct local forces.

This type of thing is also not just a product of industry but also academically, which we've also seen a lack of larger sweeping innovations coming out of China, instead mostly just narrower progress within existing western thought. It's entirely possible that what China is best at is these type of things, mastering these individual existing categories, optimizing them, and working harder than anyone else at them. Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones.

That too seems to be a result of cultural and economic system... not simply their position within some predicable growth model which worked in the west.

[est]

> People have been saying this forever and we're still waiting for any sign of it

If you are into AI you can looks up recent papers. Most of the authors are Chinese.

And yes most of the authors are studying in the US, but Trump administration are making them very difficult to work in the US, so they will all gradually return to China someday.

[dmix]

> but Trump administration are making them very difficult to work in the US

Is there any evidence this is true yet? I thought they were only going after 'chain migration' which has nothing to do with skilled workers? Or do you mean the rumblings about cracking down on those H1b mill companies gaming the system?

[hyperpallium]

It may be simplistic, but political freedom may influence technological and scientific freedom, necessary for innovation. If you routinely self-censor in one area, it transfers.

For this reason, I think we'll see some relaxation of control in China, as there has been previously.

But I guess the real challenge is having a culture of risk tolerance, and investment infrastructure etc to support it.

[twblalock]

Unfortunately it seems the Chinese government has figured out how to get high growth, investment, and scientific/technological progress without increasing political freedoms. I'd like to be wrong about that, but it seems pretty clear that it's the case.

I used to think that as more Chinese people entered the middle class, they would demand more political rights. It's generally the bourgeoisie that does this -- they aren't poor anymore and they want respect, they resent being looked down on and the monopoly on political power held by the entrenched aristocracy (which in China would be the powerful families in the party), and so on. But that hasn't happened as far as I can tell. Maybe it's because the people in a position to successfully demand political reform aren't staying in China.

[hyperpallium]

The key point of the comment I replied to is that "scientific/technological progress" has only been incremental, not leaps of creativity.

I can't speak to the factual accuracy, and it can be difficult to separate revolutionary from evolutionary, since even the greatest of leaps have antecedents and stood on the shoulders of giants (e.g. Newton)... but with such a huge population, a large proportion educated, there would be many extremely smart people capable of great work. But the only such Chinese people I know of are not in China (one famous e.g. https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Terence_Tao). So, maybe, as you say, there's a brain-drain.

And maybe I just don't hear about the ones in China (and maybe the very best work on sensitive commercial and government/military projects - e.g. CPU designers).

[lamarpye]

Not sure if that is the case. If you create IP, is the Chinese government going to defend your ownership of it? I would think smart people and people who invest in smart people are going to create things in systems where you are rewarded for it.

[hyperpallium]

China has a patent system. I don't know about copyright, but that's less significant for tech progress (and trademarks not at all).

I would guess foreign owned patents would not fare well, because it's not in China's interest (USA did the same thing some time ago), but that reasoning doesn't apply to domestically owned patents.

Apparently, in 2014 patent owners won about 80% of their cases BUT the damages granted are "maddeningly" low. The article isn't clear if that's also true for domestically owned patents. http://maxhamfirm.com/patent-litigation-china/

One mechanism is that it's harder to prove damages under Chinese Law, though people say it's changing. Though none of the cases are about real technological progress, more design/trademark like designs (I guess it's the same in the west though too) https://www.limegreenipnews.com/2018/03/calculating-larger-p...

[OrganicMSG]

>Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones.

Go buy a copy of the Three-Body trilogy by Liu Cixin.

[home_boi]

> it outcompetes payment systems from American tech companies

Does it? I think American payment systems are winning outside of China/USA. Of course it won the Chinese market because China makes it extremely difficult for foreign tech companies to compete.

[oulu2006]

I don't know why you're being down voted.

It's a forgone conclusion that China was always going to push to accelerate their local semi-conductor industry irrespective of what happened to ZTE or not. Not enforcing violations of US sanctions (and the subsequent plea agreement) would have just shown China that you can piss all over any deals made with the US commerce department (further reducing their respect) -- it would not have detracted in the slightest from China's mandate to replace their dependency on foreign technology at all!

[pault]

They can learn how to manufacture high quality products for the global market easier than the US can grow a billion people. Food for thought.

[vl]

US can grow to a billion+ people easily, it's just standard of living would be abysmal.

[beamatronic]

It just occurred to me that under extreme circumstances the US could force a worldwide brain drain overnight by relaxing immigration standards to allow anyone with a college degree on a fast track to a green card.

[khuey]

If our political system were run by cold-blooded technocrats that would be an interesting way of competing with China.