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I know that this is true given the pure combinatorics of the situation. You think that it's a chance of 1/4^250 (or so), because it's a gene BUT that very much depends on the error surface in that high-dimensional space, and not so much on the exact combination. In other words, if you need to hit haemoglobin exactly, odds are absurdly against that. But if there are 1e30 different genes resulting in substances that all increase oxygen saturation of blood, that then "coalesce" on haemoglobin as a result of optimization. In other words, I'm asking "haemoglobin" (and variants) are the bottom of a valley of an optimization process. But for evolution to "find" haemoglobin, it doesn't need to hit the bottom, it only needs to hit the valley. So it matters a great deal how big the valley is, and such a valley can be quite big. And I get it: we have no hope in hell of figuring out how big the valley is, so we just take this as answer. So "What good is half a wing ?". Well if 1/1e30th of a correct gene already works, then "half a wing" can be quite bad and yet result in a wing. DNA is an optimization process, and if that was the defining change being selected against, is it that hard to imagine that it would converge on haemoglobin given 1e30 starting positions. If you look at online evolution simulators, the ones with the wheel racing [1], then the "spikes for and aft, small wheel forward, big wheel aft, with a tail spike to prevent tipping over" could be haemoglobin in this example. The valley surrounding that optimal outcome is huge : it's essentially the whole universe in that case, which is a "gene" with 14 float32's and 2 integers. How many combinations is that ? Quadrillions, at least. And yet, all roads lead to Rome, or at least to the tailed bigwheel. Of course this doesn't even seem to apply to haemoglobin. Haemoglobin and chlorophyll[2] aren't that different (in fact the gene is identical, or at least there are genes that code for chlorophyll and genes that code for haemoglobin that are identical, so ignoring variations, they're actually identical. The difference is not so much in the gene itself but what happens to the molecule after it's created, it's in the "meta" information in the gene, not in the transcription part). So what really needed to happen is a screwup in the haemoglobin gene animals inherited from plants, followed by a few hundred generation of fine tuning. (in fact, that molecule does other stuff too, animal blood, plant photosynthesis, and (most) plant colors, as well as some aspects ATP generation (and I'm sure there's more, we just haven't found those functions yet) have a very similar chemical basis, and therefore are likely regulated by very similar genes). That could have happened 1000 times. Easily. [1] http://rednuht.org/genetic_cars_2/ [2] https://patch.com/georgia/cascade/bp--hemoglobin-vs-chloroph... |