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by genefriend 2974 days ago
1.) dollar is reserve currency. Yuan is not. Yuan is barely convertible

2.) US has large debt but way larger assets. 40% of the worlds wealth in fact

3.) US gdp to debt is only around 100%

2 comments

It's clear that the US is much stronger from the asset point of view.

If one looks at real economy, however, China can basically produce almost anything they need, except oil and some advanced electronics (which they are catching up fast and might become self-sufficient within 10 years). The US can do the same in the medium term but it will take time to reestablish its manufacturing industry to cover all needs.

Both are basically self-sufficient if need be. There is no severe weakness in the real economies of either country (except oil for both, over the medium term).

> 3.) US gdp to debt is only around 100%

You mean debt to GDP? Yes for public debt alone, but the same figure for China is around 66%. Check out my post above for comparisons of various measures and references.

Wasn't there concern that local gov't (provincial and municipal) debt in China is very high and very opaque? https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahsu/2018/01/02/fears-over-c...

Local governments in the US are constrained by the very real threat of bankruptcy, and often balanced budget requirements.

I don't see how self-sufficiency matters (unless war). In a globalized economy you want to keep the high-margin business and offload low-margin business to someone else.
I'm not an expert, but my understanding is that heavy reliance on imports increases the riskiness of debt, as external pressures and events can impact the debtor without recourse (whereas even in the event of a local industry failure, imports remain a stabilizing secondary option).
In an event of financial crunches, a self-sufficient economy should still be able to hold its own without dire threats from cut of essential imports. Its economic crisis could be quite bad but won’t be catastrophic, as in some well-known cases we’ve read about in the news.
1.) ## China's yuan officially joins the SDR (Special Drawing Rights)

“The yuan's officially in the IMF's basket of reserve currencies.

On Saturday, the Chinese currency was added to the IMF's special drawing rights (SDR) basket, joining the US dollar, the euro, the yen, and the British pound.

"The inclusion into the SDR is a milestone in the internationalization of the renminbi, and is an affirmation of the success of China's economic development and results of the reform and opening up of the financial sector," the People's Bank of China said in a statement, according to Reuters.”

http://uk.businessinsider.com/chinese-yuan-officially-joins-...

2.) China's national wealth is second only to the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_wealth

3.) Presumably you are referring to government debt to gdp? US = 105.4% https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-t... and China = 47.6% https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-debt-to-gdp

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Everything point you made is invalid which means that you either misinformed or for some reason you want to deliberately misrepresent the economic landscape or you are a blinkered ideologue.